Platform	Primary focus	Geographic availability	Fee structure
Kalshi	Sports, Economics, Politics & Culture	All 50 states	0% trading fees; withdrawal fees may vary
Polymarket	Politics, Global events & Crypto	Global (US users face restrictions)	~2% trading fee
Robinhood	Sports, Finance & Politics	All 50 states	$0.01 / contract
Crypto.com (OG)	Sports, Entertainment, Finance & Politics	All 50 states	Varies by market
PredictIt	Politics (exclusive)	All 50 states	10% profit fee; 5% withdrawal fee
Novig	Sports (exclusive)	40+ states	No commission
FanDuel Predicts	Finance & Politics; Sports (18 states only)	All 50 states (sports: 18 states)	Varies
Fanatics Markets	Sports, Politics & Finance	24+ states	TBD
Underdog Fantasy	Sports	40+ states	Juice built into lines
PrizePicks	Sports	30+ states	Juice built into lines
OG.bet	Sports & eSports	Global (limited US)	Low-margin; varies by market
Coinbase Prediction Markets	Politics, Crypto & Global events	Global (US availability limited)	~2% fee (via Polymarket)

Over the last 18 months, the U.S. prediction market has experienced a massive transformation. The once niche area of financial derivatives now finds itself in the mainstream spotlight with a meteoric rise in trading volume increasing from less than $100 million per month in early 2024 to over $13 billion in late 2025. As of March 2026, the U.S. Prediction Market is at an all-time high of activity with growth that is creating a new era of opportunities for users; however, it also creates a myriad of challenges as state and federal regulators attempt to create a new framework for the regulation of this emerging industry which could potentially alter the way these companies operate completely.

As a result of this rapid development, the environment for users of these types of markets has created a wide array of new opportunities and has produced a great deal of confusion. The prediction market has grown to include several different approaches to these markets: Federally Regulated Exchanges (subject to oversight by the CFTC, Sweepstakes Based Platforms) attempting to stay in the gray areas of the law, and Legacy Sports Betting Companies transitioning their business model into the area of Event Contracts. Each type of platform has its own set of advantages and disadvantages – including geographical limitations.

What Prediction Markets Are

Prediction markets are a type of trading platform for users (individuals) who can buy & sell contracts relating to real world events. In predictions markets, instead of buying/selling stocks/commodities, users can trade on questions such as “will the fed cut rates by the end of Q3?”, “what team will win the Super Bowl?”. In all cases, each contract pays out $1 if the user selects an outcome that occurs; and nothing is paid if the selected outcome does not occur. The price of each contract at any given time represents the market’s collective opinion of the probability of the outcome occurring. For example, a contract selling for $0.72 would indicate approximately a 72% chance of that event occuring.

This idea is based upon financial markets however applies this concept to information aggregation. As large numbers of informed participants buy/sell positions related to future events, their combined opinions (prices) generally provide more accurate estimates than individual forecasts and/or traditional polling. This is the main idea behind prediction markets: money on the line produces better estimates than just opinions.

There are two broad types of prediction markets:

• exchange-based markets: peer-to-peer platforms such as Kalshi and polymarket where users buy and sell contracts against one another. Prices change due to supply/demand. Small fee taken by the exchange-based platform.
• fixed-odds platforms: platforms such as PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy. Fixed odds platforms set lines by the house while users bet on those lines against the platform. These are structurally similar to sports books.

How Prediction Market Platforms Work

The core of the system, is the same (or very similar) regardless of which platform you’re using. A Market is created based on one specific binary question, with an established resolution date – for example: “Will Candidate X win the presidential election.” Two types of contracts are made available to users; one contract represents yes, and one contract represents no. These contracts are used to create bids/asks. As soon as a buyer agrees to purchase a contract at a price agreed upon by a seller, the trade will execute. Using the above as an example if you purchased a yes contract for $0.40 and candidate x wins the election, you would receive $1.00 – thus creating a net profit of $0.60. However, if candidate x does not win the election, then the yes contract you purchased would expire valueless.

Understanding the mechanics:

Liquidity: Active markets tend to have tighter spreads between bid price and ask price. This makes it much easier to enter and exit positions at fair Market value. Conversely, thin markets tend to have wide spreads that reduce returns.

Resolution: Each Market has established resolution criteria – for example official results of elections, a league’s record book etc… On larger platforms, professional traders function as Market makers, providing continuous liquidity by posting both buy and sell orders simultaneously. This reduces spreads and enhances execution for all other participants.

On pick’em style platforms such as prizepicks & underdog fantasy – the process is more straightforward. Users select player props from available stats lines choose over or under, submit an entry comprised of multiple legs (i.e. Multiple selections). Once submitted entries are fixed, they will resolve when games finish.

What Events Can You Trade On

Tradable event categories have grown dramatically as prediction markets have evolved. Many different types of events today can be traded upon – many more than were available when early markets first emerged; with an emphasis on political markets.

Most volume for nearly all platforms still exists within the realm of politics/elections. All levels of government (federal, state and local) including presidential elections, congressional elections, primary elections by each of the two major parties and federal reserve policy decision making (i.e. Fed interest rates), among others continue to be very popular amongst traders. These three markets (Kalshi, Polymarket & PredictIt) are the most active in this area.

Many if not all professional sports are also being covered through various prediction markets. There are numerous markets related to the NFL such as:

• Outcomes of individual games
• Superbowl winner
• NFL Most Valuable Player awards

Similarly there are many NBA related markets such as:

• Who will win the NBA Championship?
• Will [player name] reach [milestone number] points/assists/etc. before end of season?

Major league baseball is also represented in terms of its own series of markets, for example:

• Which team(s) will make it to MLB playoffs?
• Who will win world series?

And soccer (or football depending where you live) is no exception either with many markets that exist based on:

• Major tournaments like UEFA Champions League or FIFA World Cup
• Competitions in England (Premier League)

Other examples include golf majors and tennis grand slams.

Finance and economics: The macro-focused market has also been growing rapidly as well on a number of websites such as Kalshi and FanDuel Predicts. Some examples of common contracts in this space are fed rate decision, cpi readings, gdp growth level (i.e., will gdp grow at or above a certain percent), and milestone asset price values (for example, “will bitcoin exceed $100k by the end of the year?”).

Culture and entertainment: Awards show, box office performance and other entertainment related events are offered for wagering on a variety of platforms. There is an active market for oscars and grammy awards each year that they occur. Many reality tv events have active markets when those events happen.

Crypto and technology: Coinbase prediction markets and polymarket both offer a vast array of crypto-related event options – from specific prices for tokens to timing of upgrades to protocols as well as any future regulatory actions that could impact the crypto industry.

Category	Most active platforms
Politics & elections	Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Robinhood
Sports	Underdog, PrizePicks, Novig, FanDuel Predicts
Finance & economics	Kalshi, FanDuel Predicts, Robinhood
Esports	OG.bet, PrizePicks
Crypto & tech	Coinbase Prediction Markets, Polymarket
Culture & entertainment	Kalshi, Crypto.com (OG)

The Regulatory Landscape: Why It Matters

As an initial step prior to examining specific platforms for prediction markets; there is need to develop an understanding of the legal and regulatory structure that governs this industry. There is a significant difference between the terms “prediction markets”, and “sports betting”. That difference can determine which type of regulatory authority a particular platform must report to when it comes to operating as a federally approved entity or if it will be subject to the rules governing a patchwork of different state gambling laws.

The CFTC has exclusive authority to regulate “event contracts” as either derivatives (and/or) swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. Federal preemption (through the CFTC) potentially would allow regulated entities to serve customers in each of the fifty U.S. States, even though those same states have their own laws prohibiting various forms of gambling.

The position that the CFTC holds regarding its regulatory authority over the regulation of “event contracts” (regardless of what they are based upon), however, is being aggressively challenged by state gaming regulators who argue that “event contracts” relating to sporting events or other events like Academy Awards winners, music award winners, championship winners are essentially nothing other than disguised gambling.

A number of court actions were filed against numerous prediction market platforms at the end of 2025 and during the beginning of 2026. In addition to those actions, there have been a number of conflicting rulings made in Massachusetts Courts regarding Kalshi’s status. Currently, there are well over twenty (20) federal court actions pending before the Courts regarding the regulation of online prediction markets. 

Kalshi: The Market Leader Under Fire

Kalshi is the most well-known and only federally-regulated prediction market in America. Kalshi was founded by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, and it received the first ever CFTC approval for a prediction market exchange in 2021, which made Kalshi a Designated Contract Market (DCM). As of March 2026, Kalshi is the standard bearer for the industry – although it has been through many challenges.

Kalshi’s architecture follows the same design philosophy as traditional stock exchanges. Users buy binary event contracts, i.e., yes or no questions, where the price varies between $0.01 and $0.99 depending on what the majority of users think about an event. For example, if a contract that you purchased trades at $0.73 that means there is a 73% chance that that event will occur. When an event occurs all the contracts that are correct win $1.00 and all the contracts that are incorrect lose $0.00.

When Kalshi began, it focused exclusively on markets related to economics. However, the types of contracts available on Kalshi today span across:

• Sports: NFL, NBA, NHL, college basketball, soccer and big events such as the Super Bowl and March Madness
• Politics: Presidential election outcomes, who will be the controlling party of Congress, Supreme Court nominations, etc.
• Economics: Federal Reserve actions, inflation reports, job numbers, GDP growth, etc.
• Culture: Who will win at the Academy Awards, Grammy Awards, etc. and which current events will go viral.
• Science & Technology: Who will launch the next rocket into space, when will AI reach a new milestone, how will climate metrics evolve?

Kalshi has the largest amount of market liquidity, trading volume, market depth, price volatility and probability pricing in its political markets. For example, a recent contract for the 2028 Democratic Party Nominee for President had more than $55 million in trading activity and a contract for the next Federal Reserve Chairperson reached over $500 million in trading activity at one point. These examples illustrate how far Kalshi has come from being an experimental platform to becoming a real player in the world of finance.

However, Kalshi is facing severe threats to its existence. State gaming regulators have aggressively challenged Kalshi’s sports contracts, claiming that the contracts infringe upon the rights granted under local gaming laws. In early 2026, Nevada was able to obtain a preliminary injunction against Kalshi’s sports offering. Within a few weeks, Massachusetts courts issued conflicting rulings against the company. Today, the platform spends millions of dollars defending itself in court instead of developing products for its customers.

From a customer standpoint, Kalshi provides several compelling advantages. It does not charge its customers any fees to buy or sell contracts: it earns money through spreads and interest rate changes earned on deposited funds. All customer deposits are held in insured bank accounts with banks that are part of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), providing similar protection to what a customer would receive from their bank. The Kalshi website is currently very professional but was originally developed for use by professional traders and has become less complex and easier to understand for non-professional traders.

Polymarket: The Global Giant in Waiting

Polymarket is a highly contrasting case globally (as well as domestically). Globally, it far surpasses Kalshi in terms of both trading volume and number of markets; however, domestically, it exists in a regulatory gray area legally allowed to provide services to U.S. customers via a very limited Beta program; but severely restricted in comparison to the international offering.

Polymarket was founded by Shane Shin and initially launched as a completely unregulated cryptocurrency-based platform. It drew huge amounts of liquidity in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential elections cycle. At that time, the CFTC stepped in, which ultimately led to a $1.4 million settlement and a complete restructuring of the platform. Eventually, by the end of 2025, Polymarket had obtained enough regulatory permission to resume operations in the U.S., although it still does not have full functionality available for its U.S. users .

The technological structure of Polymarket’s platform separates it from competing platforms. Due to the use of blockchain technology, Polymarket provides a number of unique features including non-custodial trading, instant settlements, and large global liquidity pools. In order to participate on the platform, users are required to link their cryptocurrency wallet(s) as opposed to linking a traditional bank account, thereby allowing users to engage in pseudonymous transactions and move funds quickly. This aspect of Polymarket’s platform appeals very strongly to crypto native traders as well as those seeking to maintain anonymity.

The range of markets provided on the platform is its greatest strength. While other competing platforms are primarily focused on U.S. sports and U.S. politics, Polymarket provides markets that are much broader in scope:

• Markets related to foreign parliamentary elections and leadership changes
• Best prediction markets for cryptocurrency prices and/or new cryptocurrency protocols
• Election outcome prediction markets related to climate change and environmental or other type of outcomes like reality tv outcomes, tournament outcomes or match results.
• Milestone and launch date event prediction markets for technology companies and products
• Macro economic indicators for emerging markets
• Foreign entertainment and cultural event-related and betting prediction markets

As a result of this wide range of markets, there are many different types of trading opportunities on Polymarket that do not exist anywhere else. For example, a trader may want to hedge the exposure of his/her cryptocurrency portfolio by taking positions on certain regulatory developments, or speculate on emerging market elections when they would be unable to do so traditionally.

While Polymarket’s U.S. offering is certainly unique and offers many advantages over the competition, it also has several disadvantages. Currently, Polymarket is operating under a very restrictive regulatory regime that severely limits the types of markets that can be created and the process of on-boarding U.S. users. Additionally, all of Polymarket’s most advanced features are geo-fenced from U.S. users. The company has indicated plans to increase U.S. access to the platform in 2026, but how successful it will be in doing so remains to be seen .

Polymarket charges approximately 2% in fees per transaction – higher than Kalshi’s commission-free model but significantly lower than traditional sports book vigorish. Additionally, Polymarket generates additional income through the sale of tokens and market creation fees.

Robinhood: Finance Meets Forecasting

Robin Hood’s introduction to prediction market platforms is an example of how both traditional finance and event based trading have merged. At the end of 2024 the Commission free Brokerage service had more than 20 Million customers. They launched event contracts in their existing Regulatory Infrastructure as well as large User Base and they are now one of the biggest players in decentralized prediction markets.

Their Integration Strategy was quite elegant. Instead of creating new Standalone Prediction Market Systems, Robin Hood integrated Event Contracts directly into their current Trading Ecosystem. Their customers were able to Access Sports, Political, and Economic markets from the exact same interface that they use for Stocks and Cryptocurrencies and Funding Mechanisms and Account Management were all the Same.

This resulted in a very Rapid Growth. After the Football Launch in August 2025, the Platform Processed 2.3 Billion Event Contract Trades in Q3 2025. Then in October 2025, the number of trades jumped to 2.5 Billion in One Month. And even though there was a Seasonal Slowdown in February 2026, the Number of Trades dropped down to 2.4 Billion . These Volumes place Robin Hood among the Largest Prediction Market Venues Globally, despite being in this space for just a short time.

In terms of Regulation, Robin Hood has taken a Multi-Layered Approach. Robin Hood is operating through Robin Hood Derivatives which gives them membership to several CFTC Regulated Exchanges. In November 2025, Robin Hood Announced a Joint Venture with Susquehanna International Group to Operate a Dedicated CFTC Licensed Exchange and Clearing House. It is Expected to be Fully Online by the End of 2026 . This indicates a Long-Term Commitment to the Sector.

In terms of User Experience, it continues to follow Robin Hood’s Philosophy of Designing a Consumer Friendly Platform. Event Contracts appear as Cents ($0.01 – $0.99) and Probability Shift Visualizations are Intuitive. The Platform also provides Traditional Sports Betting platforms & Concepts (Spreads, Totals, Moneylines) Translated into Contract Formats. Additionally, Educational Resources exist to Help Stock Traders Understand How to Trade Event Contracts, and Help Sports Bettors Understand Financial Market Concepts.

In terms of Fees, they are Competitive at $0.01 per Contract. There could be an Additional Fee of up to $0.01 added by the Exchange. This Structure Under-Cuts Traditional Sports Books Significantly While Providing Much More Transparency than Sweepstakes Models.

Although Robin Hood’s Prediction Market Offering is Very Strong, it does have Some Limitations. The Platform Focuses Heavily on Major American Sports and High Profile Political Events, and Does Not Offer the Exotic Market Variety that Polymarket or Kalshi Do. Experienced Traders will Find the Interface Simplified to the Point of Constraint – No API Access, Limited Order Types, and Limited Charting Capabilities.

Crypto.com (OG): The Crypto Pioneer Goes Mainstream

A key area of development within Crypto.com is an example of how rapidly evolving the prediction markets industry has been. Already used by over 80 million users worldwide, Crypto.com launched its prediction market platform called OG in February 2026 as a separate entity designed specifically for use by American users. The OG platform is a major shift in direction. Instead of allowing crypto prediction markets for politics to be a secondary or ancillary feature on their main exchange, Crypto.com created a new business unit and fully dedicated product with its own leadership team, regulatory oversight, and user experience. As part of this, Nick Lundgren, who serves as Crypto.com’s chief legal officer, took on responsibility as CEO of OG, which signals that regulatory compliance will be at the forefront of the operation.

This type of organizational structure allows OG to perform functions that are not available to any other competitor in the space. Because OG operates under the auspices of Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CDNA) -a CFTC registered clearinghouse and designated contract market-regulatory restrictions do not apply to OG like they would to others. One of the most notable examples of this is planned margin trading for prediction contracts. If margin trading were to become available, it would allow users to leverage their positions in event markets, greatly increasing the risk and reward potential of their trades.

OG’s selection of markets to offer is focused on providing access to a wide range of event-based data points with an emphasis on diversity. Some examples of these include:

• Major sports events (i.e., Super Bowl, March Madness, NBA Finals)
• Financial indicators (i.e., Federal Reserve decision-making, employment reports)
• Political approval ratings and policy outcomes (i.e., elections, legislative vote results, etc.)
• Cultural/entertainment based moments (i.e., movie premieres, music awards)

In terms of design, OG intentionally blends the look and feel of traditional financial institutions with the aesthetic of cryptocurrency exchanges. In addition to a robust social engagement toolset (e.g., leader boards, community features), OG incorporates institutional grade security protocols and regulatory compliance throughout the entire platform.

PredictIt: The Academic Survivor

PredictIt is the oldest platform to offer political futures markets (operating since 2014) but also the most legally precarious. It was approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) to operate via a “No Action Letter” issued to Victoria University of Wellington. Despite being challenged by regulators numerous times, PredictIt has continued to exist solely offering political futures markets.

The “No Action Letter” framework provides PredictIt both an opportunity and a limitation. While originally created to allow academia to study the effectiveness of using markets for predicting outcomes (GDP growth forecasts), the “No Action Letter” allows PredictIt to continue operating even though it does not meet all of the requirements needed to be registered as a Designated Contract Market (“DCM”). Under these conditions, PredictIt is limited to: limiting investments to no more than $3500 per market, limiting institutions from participating in their markets, and is subject to the potential to have its “No Action Letter” revoked.

PredictIt’s market design focuses on the simple aspects of a market. They use binary outcome contracts, yes or no contracts, probability contracts, futures contracts options allowing customers to buy a “yes” or “no” option on a specific political issue, at a price between $0.01 and $0.99. If you correctly predict the outcome, you get $1.00 for each “share” you bought; if you incorrectly predict the outcome, your “shares” are worthless. The simplicity of PredictIt’s design has attracted over 400,000 users who actively participate in their political futures markets, which is one of the largest number of users to participate in any type of political futures markets.

Novig: A Sports Trader’s Exchange

The investment made by Venture Capital in the idea that sports prediction markets will be a disruptive force to Sports Betting, rather than just a complementary one is represented by Novig. In addition to raising over $105 million including a $75 million series B in Feburary 2026, Novig is building what they call a “Trader-First” sports prediction market.

The founding thesis challenges the current economic models of traditional sportsbooks. Traditional sports betting employs a “Against-The-House” model in which top offshore sportsbooks establish odds, receive bets and create profit through the use of their own margins (Vig), and losing bettors. Novig establishes a Peer-To-Peer Trading Platform, facilitating direct user-to-user trading with out any involvement from the sportsbook.

The Peer-To-Peer Trading Model established by Novig addresses numerous problems that are faced by successful sports bettors. Traditional sportsbooks either limit or ban consistently winning players, provide adjusted odds to match liabilities as opposed to representing true probability, and have hidden costs for bettors as a result of the complexity of Parlays. Novig’s Peer-To-Peer Trading Platform model establishes theoretically fairer pricing for all bettors, removes market based betting platforms limits, and allows for transparent Commission Structures.

Growth of the Novig platform supports the idea behind the Peer-To-Peer Trading Platform Model. Novig reported that trading volume grew 10x year-over-year during 2025 and annualized trading volume reached greater than $4 billion in early 2026 . Statistics related to profitability of users also support the model. According to Novig, users are 10x more likely to win on the Novig platform compared to traditional sportsbooks and 23% of users report being profitable compared to approximately 2% of users on traditional sportsbook platforms .

Although the platform is growing and validating the Peer-To-Peer Trading Platform Model, Novig is operating under a sweepstakes model versus being registered with the CFTC. The sweepstakes model is advantageous for the availability of the product geographically, allowing the product to be available in over 40 states; however, the model provides regulatory vulnerabilities for the company. Novig has filed their DCM application and expects to transition into full federal regulation upon approval, providing the ability to offer the product nationally and increasing the legitimacy of the product.

User Experience

The user experience provided by the Novig platform is centered around the provision of advanced trading tools for users, as opposed to providing an easy to use interface for casual users. The features of the platform include:

• Visualization of Order Book Depth
• Limit and Market Order Types
• Tracking of Position and Portfolio Analytics
• Social Trading Components and Leaderboards

These advanced features attract serious sports traders and quantitative analysts while possibly intimidating casual users. The Novig platform is designed to attract users that see sports betting as a form of skill-based trading, as opposed to some of the best online gambling sites USA.

Underdog Fantasy

Underdog Fantasy has become an extremely successful and highly used Pick’em Platform in the U.S., utilizing Player Prop Contests to generate revenue. Users have to select the performance (points, yards, strikeouts) of a particular player either Over or Under the established Line by Underdog Fantasy. Payouts for these selections are scaled based on the number of correct selections that players make.

The platform offers a very clean and modern mobile experience, and offers extensive coverage for three major professional leagues (NFL, NBA & MLB). Underdog Fantasy also offers Best Ball Drafts, which were a significant contributor to building their initial reputation prior to the success of their Pick’em Product.

Available in 40+ states, Underdog Fantasy operates in a Legal Gray Area as they operate as a Daily Fantasy Sports Platform as opposed to offering Sports Betting opportunities. This allows them to be available across a wide range of jurisdictions. There is NO Flat Fee associated with using the Underdog Fantasy platform, however, the Margin earned from each user transaction is factored into the Lines offered by the company.

PrizePicks

PrizePicks is the leading competitor in the daily fantasy prop space with more entries than all other DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) competitors in the U.S. The basic concept is straightforward: choose 2-6 athletes to either be “over” or “under” a projection for an individual statistical category. Once selected, you will receive payouts based on predetermined multipliers that are determined by how many legs you have chosen. PrizePicks offers numerous sporting events including: NFL; NBA; MLB; NHL; College Football; College Basketball; Esports; etc., and is therefore, one of the most extensive prop offering platforms. Because PrizePicks provides a daily fantasy format instead of a traditional sports wagering format, it can operate in nearly 30+ states where traditional sports betting is currently prohibited. The overall user experience is very easy to use, even for new users. More experienced users may not prefer the fixed odds model offered by PrizePicks compared to a true exchange. All lines are set by PrizePicks and they build the margin into the line as opposed to charging it as a visible fee.

OG.bet

The platform primarily targets the global (international) sports-betting space; although some of their products are available in the U.S., those offerings are both limited, and dependent upon which states allow such activity. They operate on a lower margin for bets with more competitive pricing – thus they attract a higher percentage of sharp/better-informed bettor types vs. the less informed recreational player. The interface is quite new/modern, and they have significantly more extensive/stronger esports markets compared to most other “mainstream” online sportsbooks. The biggest issue hindering U.S.-based access at this time is that while regulated online sports wagering is slowly expanding into more jurisdictions within the United States, it has still not become a widely accessible or mainstream option.

Coinbase Prediction Markets

Coinbase Prediction Markets were released later in 2024 as an expansion of Coinbase’s entry into on-chain financial products, utilizing Polymarket’s platform to settle trades on the Base blockchain. Users can now create “yes/no” contracts on political events, crypto price milestones, and global news through a Coinbase interface that is more accessible than creating a Polymarket account with a separate crypto wallet. Compared to Polymarket, existing Coinbase users will experience reduced friction when accessing these new prediction markets. In terms of fees, Coinbase is mirroring Polymarket with fees in excess of 2% to both parties. Due to regulatory restrictions in the U.S. surrounding the legality of prediction markets (which are considered gambling), Coinbase is restricting U.S. based users from participating in the prediction markets feature. Thus, American users have the same level of accessibility to the prediction markets offered by Coinbase as they do to those on Polymarket. Coinbase Prediction Markets are still in their infancy and rely heavily upon Polymarket’s established user base for liquidity and market development, however the additional exposure provided by being listed on the Coinbase platform provides a significant increase in the number of users who may be interested in trying out prediction markets for the first time.

FanDuel Predicts: The Market Leader’s Gambit

FanDuel Predicts was launched in December 2025 and is backed by a number of large corporations and has an enormous scope. FanDuel Predicts is a $300 million investment commitment from its parent company Flutter Entertainment that indicates the potential opportunity and the threat that prediction markets will be to traditional gaming companies.

As part of its new platform, FanDuel Predicts has partnered with CME Group which is one of the largest derivatives exchanges in the world. This partnership provides FanDuel Predicts with the regulatory and infrastructural support that other competitors do not have. Additionally, this partnership will allow FanDuel Predicts to provide CFTC regulated event contracts with institutional level of security and compliance with the best sports betting sites and best credit card casinos.

The geographic availability of FanDuel Predicts also reflects the complex regulatory environment that exists today. FanDuel Predicts provides financial and political contracts in all 50 states, however, it is restricted on providing sports contracts in only 18 states due to the fact that FanDuel does not hold the necessary sports betting license in those states. By restricting FanDuel Predicts from providing sports contracts in only 18 states, FanDuel is able to avoid cannibalizing the revenue generated through its traditional sportsbooks in those states, while at the same time attracting users in un-tapped markets such as California, Texas and Florida.

In terms of the types of contracts offered by FanDuel Predicts, the emphasis is on making them accessible to mainstream consumers:

• Fundamental financial benchmarks (e.g. S&P 500, NASDAQ, commodity price etc.)
• Economic indicators (e.g. inflation rates, employment, Federal Reserve policy etc.)
• Political events (e.g. elections, legislation, appointments etc.)
• Sports related contracts (e.g. in eligible states)

In addition, the user interface for FanDuel Predicts is designed to be simple and easy to use so that casual sports fans can easily understand how to use it, rather than trying to build a sophisticated product for professional traders. The binary nature of the yes/no type contracts eliminates the need for users to think too much about the complexities of the prediction market and the educational materials provided by FanDuel explains how to predict using a prediction market in order to educate traditional sports book customers.

To promote the acceptance of prediction markets and esports betting sites by mainstream consumers, FanDuel is investing heavily in advertising. In anticipation of clear regulations regarding prediction markets being enacted, FanDuel has announced that they expect to incur up to $300 million in adjusted EBITDA losses in 2026 in an effort to obtain as much market share as possible and establish itself as the dominant player in the emerging prediction market space.

Fanatics Markets: The Ecosystem Play

Fanatics Markets was introduced in December 2025 by Fanatics Markets, which provided a unique value proposition by providing a combination of prediction markets, along with its other products and services including, sports merchandise, collectibles, tickets, and gaming. As a result, the strategy utilizes Fanatics’ trusted brand to provide an introduction of prediction markets to a large base of mainstream sports fans who may be unfamiliar with financial derivatives.

In terms of technology, Fanatics has partnered with Crypto.com’s CFTC-registered exchange and its established regulatory compliant infrastructure, providing a combination of Fanatics’ experience in working with consumers and Crypto.com’s compliance with federal regulators. In July 2025, Fanatics purchased Paragon Global Markets, a registered introducing broker, to enable this combination.

Phase One of Fanatics Markets went live in 24 U.S. states, including some of the largest markets in the country such as California, Texas, Florida and Washington. Fans will also be able to bet on contracts related to events in sports, finance, economics and politics, with the company planning to expand into additional markets such as cryptocurrencies (Ethereum, Polygon, Bitcoin, USDC, Tether, DAI, Stablecoins), stocks, Gnosis chain, smart contracts, decentilized applications, web3 prediction markets, climate and entertainment in 2026.

Legal Status of Prediction Markets

The U.S. government’s legal environment for prediction markets has dramatically changed over the past few years, making it currently one of the most difficult online finance and gaming regulatory environments.

Regulators’ central challenge has been determining what type of business model prediction markets represent (gambling, security trading or an unclassified model) and the ramifications for platform operation models and user access to these types of exchanges will be substantial.

Kalshi made major strides as the first prediction market exchange to receive designation from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing Kalshi to operate its platform based upon a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license. As such, Kalshi operates within a defined regulatory structure that allows it to create and enforce rules about how its platform should operate.

Competitors to Kalshi created their own platforms without this same level of formal regulation. In 2024, Kalshi was able to win a court case against the CFTC and allow Kalshi to begin offering political event contracts in all 50 states.

Where Access Is Restricted

Access differs dramatically based on the nature of the platform and the position of the state regarding DFS, financial contracts, and gambling.

The following states have been historically fully restricted or severely limited to allow DFS style platforms (Underdog, PrizePicks):

• Idaho
• Montana
• Nevada

Nevada views DFS through the lens of its gaming statutes; thus, it requires DFS operators to obtain a full gaming license prior to being able to commence operations.

Washington State prohibits online gambling, which has also prohibited DFS.

Due to federal law prohibiting unregistered prediction markets, Polymarket and Coinbase Prediction Markets are generally not open to all U.S. users; this restriction is nationwide for all U.S. citizens.

Choosing Your Platform: Strategic Considerations

Determining which one of the ten platforms is right for you involves weighing your personal values against a number of different factors:

Legal Safety

If safety and security of funds is a priority, then Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) registered exchanges – such as Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com (OG), FanDuel Predicts, are the safest options. They have FDIC insured accounts, regulated by government agencies, and have avenues available if there is a dispute.

Regulator also include: Financial market regulation, derivatives trading regulation, futures trading rules and prediction market compliance. Additional level of security is provided by smart contract security, blockchain verification, decentralized governance, market transparency and fraud prevention.

Competition

Polymarket has the largest variety of markets – especially in regards to international and cryptocurrency related events. Kalshi has the most liquid U.S. politics and sports markets. 

Costs

Zero trading fee at Kalshi makes it the best option for high volume traders; however, withdrawals can be costly. The peer to peer model at Novig provides potential best pricing for sports markets, although they do charge commissions. When comparing prices, consider all costs – including spreads, fees and withdrawal costs – rather than just the headline rate.

Ease of Use

Robinhood and FanDuel Predicts provide the most user-friendly interface, making them the best option for new users. Novig and Kalshi provide an advanced order type for experienced users. Crypto.com (OG) blends the feel of cryptocurrency and traditional financial services. 

Geographic Restrictions

Users who live in states that allow for legal sports betting will be able to use all of the peer to peer prediction platforms. Users living in states that do not allow for legal sports betting, will have to choose between using a sweepstakes platform (such as Novig) or a prediction market that allows only non-sports contracts.

How to Start Trading Prediction Markets

To begin with, all of these options have a relatively easy sign-up process for new users, however each one has slightly different registration procedures based upon if you wish to use a marketplace that facilitates traditional market-making (i.e., buying/selling prior to a position’s resolution) and/or pick’em style products.

Step 1: Identify what kind of trading experience you’d like

If you prefer the real-time trading of a marketplace that allows you to open and close trades prior to a position being resolved then choose either Kalshi or Robin Hood. If you simply would like to make very basic bets on games (over/under) with prize pools, PrizePicks or Underdog Fantasy will be your best choice. If you already trade cryptocurrency and would like exposure to international politics and economics with liquidity that rivals other established exchanges, but reside in the United States; Polymarket is likely going to provide you the greatest level of market exposure – although it should be noted there are restrictions on US participation.

Step 2: Sign up and complete user verification

In order to comply with Know Your Customer (KYC), all U.S. regulated platforms require some form of identification as part of their initial sign up process. Please be prepared to produce your government issued photo id. The verification process typically can take less than five minutes using mobile. In addition, DFS regulated platforms (such as Prize Picks, and Underdog) will need to know the state you reside in so they can determine if you are eligible to participate.

Step 3: Fund your account

Most prediction exchanges support various deposit options. Platforms such as Kalshi and Robinhood use traditional bank transfer and Debit card deposits. Other exchanges such as PrizePicks and Underdog will also allow users to fund their accounts using either a Debit Card or through PayPal, and also Bank ACH (for some exchanges). In addition, other platforms such as Polymarket and Coinbase Prediction Markets will require users to fund their accounts with Cryptocurrency (in this case USDC on Polygon/Base). Finally, Novig allows users to fund their account through a Bank Transfer in almost all supported states.

Step 4: Get Familiar With How The Platform Works

Take some time to browse around the different types of markets that are offered on each platform. This will help you understand how each platform works, as well as give you an opportunity to see which one is going to work best for you. Each platform has its own unique features, therefore it may be helpful to review the tutorials, or training videos for each platform prior to making a decision on which platform to utilize.

Step 5: Determine What Type Of Trading Style Will Work Best For You

Before you begin actively trading, determine what type of trader you want to become. Are you looking for long-term gains? Short term trades? Or something else entirely? If you’re unsure of where to begin, we would recommend starting out with short-term trades. Many traders begin by focusing on short-term predictions that are relatively easy to track (such as who wins a football game), and then gradually move into longer-term trades.

Step 6: Begin Browsing And Placing Trades

Begin browsing through the available markets, reviewing the current prices of each contract, and evaluating what the implied probabilities mean when compared to your own opinions. If you believe that a particular event will occur at a higher rate than reflected by the current contract pricing, this could represent a possible area of advantage. For example, a “YES” contract priced at $.55 on Kalshi means that the market believes there is a 55% chance the event will occur. Therefore, if you believe it is closer to 70%, you now have a basis upon which to evaluate the potential advantages of placing a trade.

Prediction Markets FAQs

Are prediction markets legal in the U.S.?

Legal status of prediction markets in the United States depend upon the platform and your location (state). All 50 states have legal access to CFTC-regulated prediction market exchanges such as Kalshi. Most states allow DFS-style platforms (PrizePicks, Underdog) while several states restrict their use. Crypto-based prediction market exchanges (Polymarket) are currently inaccessible to U.S. users as they violate U.S. federal law.

Are trading on prediction market exchanges considered gambling?

Legally, the classification of trades made on prediction market exchanges vary depending on the regulatory body involved. CFTC-regulated exchanges treat trades as “financial contracts” and not “gambling.” DFS-platforms classify trades as “skill-based contests”. This classification has practical implications as well. It determines what states you can participate in using these types of platforms and how winnings are subject to taxation.

How are winnings taxed?

In general, U.S. taxpayers are required to report wins from prediction markets as ordinary income to the IRS. If an exchange issues 1099 forms to users for wins exceeding specified reporting limits, this indicates that winnings are taxable. Users seeking tax advice on their individual situations should consult a qualified tax advisor (especially those who win money through cryptocurrency-based prediction markets; where tax treatments may differ.)

Can I make consistent money from predictions made using prediction markets?

While some people make money regularly by participating in prediction markets, doing so typically requires a legitimate informational advantage over others participating in the market and disciplined execution. Most successful participants have developed an area of expertise or domain knowledge (i.e., a political analyst, sports statistician, financial trader), which enables them to recognize when certain contracts are being under- or over-valued. While casual participation in prediction markets can also provide entertainment value and/or be a hobby, using it as a reliable method to earn an income would require similar effort and discipline as any form of active trading.

What is the distinction between an exchange-based prediction market and a traditional sportsbook?

A sportsbook establishes betting lines and will take the opposite side of each wager. On the contrary, an exchange-based prediction marketplace provides users with a platform to be matched against another user that has taken the opposing position on the same issue. Although there may be some fees associated with using this type of platform, as a whole they provide superior pricing options due to their ability to reflect the true sentiment in the market (i.e., the actual opinions of those participating) versus what would otherwise be established by a sportsbook’s margins.

The Road Ahead: Predictions for Prediction Markets

Regulatory clarification is possible because the U.S. Supreme Court could settle the federal/state jurisdictional dispute and decide whether to uphold the CFTC’s authority to regulate national-level prediction markets or allow states to oversee such activities through their own laws and regulations. The CFTC released an advanced notice of proposed rule making in April 2026 that indicated the CFTC was developing its first set of rules governing prediction markets.

Short-term product innovation expected in the prediction markets includes margin trading dashboards, mobile compatibility for sports betting apps for iOS & android, market analytics, event listings and price charts (as promised by OG), combination markets, and real time settlement. In addition to short-term product innovation, longer term opportunities include expanding the types of contracts traded in prediction markets to include corporate risk management, insurance derivatives, and other innovative financial products that do not yet exist.

Regardless of what platform one chooses to participate in, the basic fundamentals of successful trading remain the same. Successful prediction market traders require:

(1) the ability to provide informed analysis,

(2) disciplined risk management, and

(3) patient capital deployment.

Successful prediction market traders treat these markets as legitimate financial instruments rather than casual bets.

The platforms described above are the leading edge of a financial revolution that converts speculation into structured markets, opinion into price discovery, and uncertainty into tradable risk. The continued development and refinement of these platforms during the coming years will not only influence the way we gamble and invest in the financial markets; they will also significantly affect the ways in which our society collectively gathers, interprets, and uses information to forecast the future.

DISCLAIMER

Trading in prediction markets involves significant risks of loss. This article contains only informational summaries regarding the subject matter and is not intended to be taken as investment advice. Before participating in the trading of prediction markets, users should confirm the current regulatory environment and the availability of each prediction market platform in their respective jurisdictions. For free and confidential gambling advice, visit these organizations:

https://www.gamblersanonymous.org/

https://www.ncpgambling.org/

https://www.gamblingtherapy.org/